I have covered the basics of transition matrices before though I raise it again because to make valid assertions as to school and Department performance comparisons, we must take into account the ability profile in each subject in our schools – (it is the same premise that is driving our personalised student estimates and curriculum estimates). What is more, the updated, consolidated ASCL resources are even better. Bravo ASCL and David Blow (Headteacher of The Ashcombe School).
Given our rather turbulent results for English, I needed to know what we could have expected with our student profile, if it were in line with the national distribution for each sub-level. This is achieved by using the percentage national distribution for each sub-level and the actual number in our school with each KS2 sub-level. A point reinforced by Ofsted
When judging achievement,inspectors focus on the proportions of pupils in comparison with national figures who, from each starting point,make expected progressmake more than expected progress
What information is available?
Case-study – English
Our entry policy for the different exams requires require. Our English entry profile was significantly lower than the national profile (23.65vs 27.45), 21% lower at 5c. 3b – 5c did not make expected progress, particularly our 4c and 4b.
This is in stark contrast to English Language. Our English entry profile was higher (29.49 vs 27.45) than the national profile. 4c and 4a achieved well above expected. A* – A grades were achieved. 
Our English Literature entry profile was higher than national (29.49 vs 27.45). 4c and 4a achieved well above expected. A grades were achieved, interestingly, from our 4a students, hence the high VA, low VA profile.
Using transition matrices is a very clear way to engage with Senior Heads of Curriculum and Middle Leaders as they clearly present subject performance, by sub level. Even more importantly, with the ASCL resource, they present your school’s actual figures and your school’s figures if in line with the national profile of each sub-level.
One additional feature is that they can also present the school subject profile against the national subject profile, and for an Academy like ours, with a much lower literacy base, that is important to quantify when comparing English and Maths, or other subjects I presume in other contexts.
It can also be used to suggest more students, 4c and 4b in our case, should be entered for English Literature.
You can access the ASCL resources via ASCL’s website.
Incidentally, what image would you have used with this post?
Just one note of caution. Until the 2013 matrices are released (end Nov / beginning Dec – released at the same time as RAISEonline) you can use the 2012 matrices, though with a health warning.
There’s is risk of some difference, most likely in English and maths (because of early entry and unknown implementation of comparable outcomes), and in MFL, history, geography (because of
Influence of Ebacc). Proceed with care, though do proceed, painting with a broad brush.
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